Reagan and Obama on employment and the economy:
Reagan Facts: In January 1981, unemployment was 7.5% then maxed-out at 10.8% in December 1982. Reagan finally got the unemployment rate to 7% in November 1985. It took 59 months to recover to that point.
Obama Facts: In January 2009, unemployment was 7.8% and maxed-out at 10% in October 2009. Last month (November 2013) the unemployment rate lowered to 7%. Like Reagan, Obama took 59 months to reach 7%.
Even after the Reagan Recovery the Unemployment rate jumped back up to 7.2% from February to June 1986. Reagan finally had unemployment below 6% in November 1987. Reagan took 83 months to get from 7.5% to 5.8% when he left office 14 months latter the rate was 5.4%. So 96 months to improve the job market by 2.1%, why is Reagan considered to be a God by the GOP?
First off, the most glaring statistic in Obama's favor is the fact that unemployment never went above a flat 10% and that is really saying something when you consider the trajectory the unemployment rate was taking when he took office and the Right Wing of the GOP has fought and tried to derail the Obama Recovery at every turn. Reagan had a Congress who worked with him to save jobs and better the lives of all Americans and his performance was no better. Worse if you look at the naked numbers, 10.8%!!! REALLY?! and Reagan never had to fight the scourge of outsourcing.
Just think what the President could have accomplished to this point if he wasn't fighting a GOP insurgence more interested in making him a one term President than getting America back on strong footing.
The charts above are from 2010. It only got worse after that. The Democrats lost their Super Majority and the Tea Party rise to prominence in the GOP has pretty much ended,..what am I saying? ENDED!!! what civility was left in The District.
Did I mention, in 1981 Reagan slashed the top income tax rate from 70% to 28%. Yet unemployment increased over 3% in the course of the next year. One could look at the raw numbers from the Reagan era without any names attached and would be compelled to believe he was a "Tax and Spend Liberal" after all he did increase Federal Spending from $678 Billion to $1.3 Trillion and he did increase the Federal Debt from $994 Billion to $3.2 Trillion.
Reagan actually raised taxes eleven times. According to Reagan historian Douglas Brinkley, "Ronald Reagan was never afraid to raise taxes. He knew that it was necessary at times. And so there's a false mythology out there about Reagan as this conservative president who came in and just cut taxes and trimmed federal spending in a dramatic way. It didn't happen that way. It's false."
The FACTS: Unemployment Rate January 1981 to August 2015
President Obama is not perfect and he does not claim to be perfect. He has fought the good fight on behalf of the Middle Class. As for his performance on the Job Market? I say he has done at least as well as Reagan, even better. So in the coming months lets pay attention to the unemployment rate to see if it jumps back up like it did under Reagan and lets check back in December 2015. I bet Obama will have Reagan beat by a full percentage point.
That is right. You heard it hear first, the unemployment rate in December 2015 will be 4.7%.
Now for the update: The Unemployment graph above has been updated from November 2013.
First lets address the unemployed elephant in the room. When a Bush is running things, unemployment goes up more than it goes down.
79 months into their perspective tenures and Obama has Reagan beat by almost a full percentage point. In July 1987 Reagan was at 6.1% and Obama is at 5.3% for July 2015. We only have five months to go to make my bold prediction of 4.7% come true. I still see it happening.
The Job market of 2015 is a completely different animal from the 1984 and 1988 markets. For starters America used to make things on home soil. Even back in 2000 my daughter and I would play a game. If she could find a toy made the USA I would buy it for her letting her save her allowance for anther day. Suffice to say she never got to save her allowance for another day and it really pissed her off.
It was China, Singapore, Mexico, India, Vietnam and many other nations. She would have to look on a world map to find and then she would get even more upset, when seeing how far away 100% of every item on the shelves were coming from. Thanks to our little game she learned there are no free lunches and that a big corporate boss would put his own mother to work in a sweat shop if it meant he would turn a profit for investors.
But I digress, Obama is beating Reagan by .8% and again I have to ask. Why do the Conservatives speak of Reagan with such reverence and call Obama the "worst" President ever?
Now lets take a look at Labor Force Participation Rate:
Current US Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.60%
US Labor Force Participation Rate for Jul 2015 — reported Aug 7, 2015
All Time Mean: 62.88%
All Time Median: 63.50%
All Time Min: 58.10% (Dec 1954)
All Time Max: 67.30% (Apr 2000)
This rate includes both those who are employed, and unemployed but looking for work.
Now lets see Employment Population Ratio:
Current US Employment Population Ratio: 59.30%
US Employment Population Ratio for July 2015 — reported Aug 7, 2015
All Time Mean: 59.20%
All Time Median: 58.50%
All Time Min: 54.90% (Oct 1949)
All Time Max: 64.70% (Apr 2000)
Unlike the Unemployment Rate, this includes people who have stopped looking for work.
Again the unemployed elephant in the room is named George Bush either H.W. or just Dubya. Sure JEB! we need another one of you stooges in the White House.
Whenever
a right winger tells you that we are in the lowest labor
participation rate in history educate them to the FACTS. You can see based on Participation Rate and Employment Population Ratio we are currently right in step with the all time mean and median for both categories and far from the all time minimum in both.
Looking at the historical data even Saint Reagan was not much better than Obama if at all. Actually the Employment Population Ratio under Reagan dropped to 57% a full 1% lower then it has under Obama. Like I said Reagan had a Congress who worked for him and did not have the scourge of outsourcing or 10,000 Baby Boomers turning 65 everyday. With modern business practices of using "temps" or the lack of manufacturing base to refill those positions the President has a much harder job of it than Reagan. I also have to point out Reagan took the reins from a predecessor who oversaw the creation of 10.4 million jobs and based on the charts above, a growing job market. Obama took over from the absolutely worst POTUS of all time.
In summary, based on the data Obama is beating Reagan on the job market as far as the rest of the economy goes Obama is the clear winner.
The Reagan recession was bad, the truth is that Reagan had it easy when compared to the economic armageddon Obama inherited. Yet Obama has seen the stock market grow to record highs, Reagan had Black Monday, and the economy has added private sector jobs for 64 straight months. During this span, 12.8 million private sector jobs have been created. Sure wages are stagnate but they have been since Trickle Down came into the American lexicon, thank you "Ron Reagan", anyone remember that SNL skit of the same name from the 80's? I have a post planed for later date about what to do if you work for an employer who does not value your partnership with him or her and believe it or not I will be praising Koch Industries and criticizing Unions.
